[Will]

Wayne County Michigan fails to certify election results. This now goes to the state canvassing board.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/nation...195e0f6a28

Still a low probability but my thesis posted in the main forum last week is beginning to take shape. See point #4 below.

Don't want to get into a long discussion but I think this could impact the markets in the next week or two. I think the probability is increasing that we have an unusual and unanticipated path to the presidential inauguration next year. I've been studying everything related to the election in the last week and I think there are a number of factors the markets are underestimating or assuming that the course forward will be the same as most other elections between now an inauguration day. This is not a prediction just an observation of several forces at work.

1) Unprecedented level of mail-in ballots in a system that was not designed to accommodated this. I've seen data in some states that indicate less than 0.1% of mail-in ballots were rejected in 2020 when typically numbers of rejected mail-in ballots hover around ~3%.
2) I've seen some compelling evidence that states, Pennsylvania in particular, may have violated election laws and constitutional requirements.
- Look at actions of PA supreme court regarding state law regarding acceptance date of mail-in ballots
- Some compelling evidence that some counties in PA have violated the equal protection clause when it comes to curing ballots
3) Dominion voting machine - I'm not convinced that there is wide spread fraud regarding these machines at this point. However, they are getting a lot of attention and at times being used to justify a full audit, re-canvasing and recount. This could have an impact on the status/rejection of some mail-in ballots. If real fraud is discovered here we will be in a complete election melt down. I don't see widespread fraud as highly likely at this point but in 2020 and anything is possible. Particularly when almost half the country believes that Trump is Hitler and cheating would be justified to save the republic from Hitler.
4) State legislators are starting to get involved in some of these states. I'm still trying to absorb the possible constitutional implications of this but the state legislators are mostly republican. The constitution puts the responsibility of setting state election laws in the hands of state legislators and the constitution puts more power in the hands these legislators than most people realize when it comes to federal elections in particular the presidency.
5) Probability higher than usual that changes are made to the pool of presidential electors before electoral college meets in early December. I actually think the higher probability is that some number of electors don't get certified in time may be a higher probability. This could be a result of courts ruling that election laws were violated in PA for example.
6) Trump is a fighter and for better or worse he is more likely to push some of these issues more than you would typically expect.
7) The race is so tight in a handful of states that it does not take much to move the needle.

To be clear I'm not implying the above is highly probable at this stage of impacting the outcome of the election. In the majority of years the probability that even one elector defects is close to zero and that is the most irregularity you may expect between the election and the inauguration. I wold maybe put the odds of something above actually impacting the outcome of the election at 2-7% at this point. However, I would place the odds of these events become a focus of markets and media at something much higher than that in the next month. Maybe 20-35%. All I'm saying is that some of the data I've digested implies some of the above will get traction in the courts or in the state legislators. When people start to realize there is a high possibility of a very unusual path to inauguration day market volatility may pick up.

Just my two cents... Here's one interesting article regarding PA.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/12/pen...intervene/

In a final note, I don't recommend trading the news. I'm just making the case that these are still not normal times and the market is expecting some return to normalcy.