[TKPG]

Debate away!

[greenthumb]

Stats from where I live:
population 293,000 (est. as of 4/1/2020)
cases 120 (.04%)
deaths 8 (.002%)

I live 4 counties away from Backwater Jacks (the place in the viral video).

Stats from Camden County, MO (Backwater Jacks):
population 44,016 (est. as of 4/12020)
cases 37 (.08%)
deaths 1 (.002%)
And just for fun, there have been 7 drownings in Camden County since the first of May. Guess we should ban lakes.

Why should we be in lockdown mode? Oh yeah -- to give away freedom. Silly me. Rights do not cease to exist because others are afraid.
Benjamin Franklin once said: "Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."

[ryangilmer]

There will be lots of debate regarding who was right and who was wrong and whether the lockdowns were necessary or not. For me personally, those hypothetical discussions are very rarely productive and they generally are just entrenched arguments. If others want to do that, great. I'm more interested in what we should do now.

As far as that goes, I think there is very little debate that the vast majority of the country should be out of lockdown. Would be interested to hear any other view that disagrees. Seems like we are now into the phase where people who want to be cautious should do that and people who don't shouldn't have to.

[ryangilmer]

The stats are becoming increasingly clear - if you are under 70 with no comorbidities, you are very unlikely to die. The way forward is:

Go outside
Be respectful of others, especially those in risk groups
stay socially distanced, wear a mask in group social situations that may call for it
Wash hands

Enjoy summer.

[porkchop]

Agree entirely with your 2 posts, ryangilmer. Two main points from my post yesterday were (1) the lockdown crew is so entrenched in their stance--because it creates a scenario where they are on the "correct" cautious side as opposed to trump who was on the less-cautious side and whose delayed actions resulted in so many death and economic despair, a narrative that was drafted, circulated, and stamped in mid-March that they are riding this into the election, come hell or high water regardless of what the actual data says or what's in the best interests of the country and its people (this has been so obvious and revealing); (2) In imposing certain policies, politicians are attempting to obfuscate data for personal/political benefit rather than be flexible and represent the people whom they govern. Only with the protests have they been pressured to loosen their grips, otherwise surely it wouldn't be a hasty voluntary lifting of restrictions.

You see, they stopped reporting historical data on the nursing home tragedy because they are so laser focused on current outbreaks that it was critical they take the time to remove the existing, static data which consumed none of their time by letting it stay there...got it.

"On Friday, Illinois stopped providing historical data on COVID-19 in nursing homes. A day later, the full numbers are back."
https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavir...story.html

"State data now shows that 14,882 workers and residents of long-term care centers have tested positive and more than 2,400 have died. That’s an additional 1,800 cases and 250 deaths that were not part of Friday’s data."
...
"IDPH’s priority is to focus on those facilities currently experiencing an outbreak. However, all long-term care outbreaks are again being reported on the IDPH website, including those that are not currently experiencing an outbreak"

[ryangilmer]

Truth emerges.

I'm not an expert at all on the politics and hidden motives, if any, behind these policies. But I'm confident as the truth becomes more and more obvious, obfuscating it is not a winning strategy.

[TKPG]

Here is some data on % of positive cases

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

[StockGuy2020]

Here is some data on % of positive cases

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

food for thought.. my entire family tested positive in last 8 days... ALL... I have found out what covid IS...

for me.. and don't give me some its killing XXXXXX.... its way less than cold.. if a cold is a 10 this is a 3... a lot more should be looked at about that Italian research saying virus has mutated and its now way weaker... trust me.. so far this is weak...

I am leaving in 15 mins to go run 10 miles... do it every day.. My times are off by about 30 seconds a mile... lungs are weaker... but I could never run these times with a cold.. NO WAY...

I know 50 people will it.. all saying same... fine...

Hospitals are testing people at hospital every day... each day positive is a new case... there 7 days and you get 7 new positives.. thats truly insane...

elective surgeries are through the roof... anyone that goes in for one that test positive is covid hospital even though they are fine and there for something else.... also insane...

and deaths are collapsing... adds a lot to this isn't the same virus in march in any manner and why deaths are so low and cases up...

food for thought.. What do the markets do if we find out the virus is now weaker than colds or flu?

[Bayview777]

food for thought.. my entire family tested positive in last 8 days... ALL... I have found out what covid IS...

for me.. and don't give me some its killing XXXXXX.... its way less than cold.. if a cold is a 10 this is a 3... a lot more should be looked at about that Italian research saying virus has mutated and its now way weaker... trust me.. so far this is weak...

I am leaving in 15 mins to go run 10 miles... do it every day.. My times are off by about 30 seconds a mile... lungs are weaker... but I could never run these times with a cold.. NO WAY...

I know 50 people will it.. all saying same... fine...

Hospitals are testing people at hospital every day... each day positive is a new case... there 7 days and you get 7 new positives.. thats truly insane...

elective surgeries are through the roof... anyone that goes in for one that test positive is covid hospital even though they are fine and there for something else.... also insane...

and deaths are collapsing... adds a lot to this isn't the same virus in march in any manner and why deaths are so low and cases up...

food for thought.. What do the markets do if we find out the virus is now weaker than colds or flu?

Stockguy, just curious - what are the ages of your family and do you have any of the underlying symptoms that are linked with the most serious cases?

[StockGuy2020]

Stockguy, just curious - what are the ages of your family and do you have any of the underlying symptoms that are linked with the most serious cases?

My entire family has it... I know of 14 people close to me with It now... no none are serious at all.. in fact all are almost exact same... day by day...

headaches ... sinus.. weakness... taste you name it.. day by day... all are about 12 days in now.. and "so far" this isn't serious... I have had colds worse...

I am actually very happy to have it now.. don't have to worry about fear anymore and fear was many many fold worse than heard about this was..

I don't consider me lucky which some will say.. I had a normal reaction to it.. like everyone else I know with it..

[StockGuy2020]

My entire family has it... I know of 14 people close to me with It now... no none are serious at all.. in fact all are almost exact same... day by day...

headaches ... sinus.. weakness... taste you name it.. day by day... all are about 12 days in now.. and "so far" this isn't serious... I have had colds worse...

I am actually very happy to have it now.. don't have to worry about fear anymore and fear was many many fold worse than heard about this was..

I don't consider me lucky which some will say.. I had a normal reaction to it.. like everyone else I know with it..

It really is a text book virus how it plays out day by day... seeing same progression in every person... I personally dont know of anyone that has gone to hospital or honestly know how the current version would make you that sick.... I guess you have to have certain types of issues to cause it I guess...

I personally don't believe this virus is the same from march... somehow its much milder now.. IMHO

[Bayview777]

My entire family has it... I know of 14 people close to me with It now... no none are serious at all.. in fact all are almost exact same... day by day...

headaches ... sinus.. weakness... taste you name it.. day by day... all are about 12 days in now.. and "so far" this isn't serious... I have had colds worse...

I am actually very happy to have it now.. don't have to worry about fear anymore and fear was many many fold worse than heard about this was..

I don't consider me lucky which some will say.. I had a normal reaction to it.. like everyone else I know with it..

I think that is what makes this thing a problem - the majority of the people will have symptoms that range from non-existent to moderate. If those people don't know they are infected and don't take precautions, they are unwittingly spreading the virus to others that may experience severe symptoms or death. 2 people in my extended family have died - one was in a nursing home and not doing well, so a mild cold may have proven fatal. The other was healthy and just over 70.

You only need to look at areas like Houston or parts of AZ to know that this can be a serious issue as the ICU beds are near capacity. You, your family and others that have it are indeed fortunate to not have it worse.

On another note, I had a long conversation with a friend of mine and we have a mutual friend that owns a research lab and is studying the virus. Per our mutual friend, he said there were several strains that came in to the U.S. The one that came in to California was from Wuhan and symptoms were less serious than the one that came into New York primarily from Italy - this stain apparently was much more deadly, hence the differences in the severity of the outbreak in NY, NJ and CT. Not sure if this is accurate or not, but thought it interesting.

I hope you, your family and friends get over this with no further complications and would be interested to hear how long it takes you to recover fully.

[StockGuy2020]

I think that is what makes this thing a problem - the majority of the people will have symptoms that range from non-existent to moderate. If those people don't know they are infected and don't take precautions, they are unwittingly spreading the virus to others that may experience severe symptoms or death. 2 people in my extended family have died - one was in a nursing home and not doing well, so a mild cold may have proven fatal. The other was healthy and just over 70.

You only need to look at areas like Houston or parts of AZ to know that this can be a serious issue as the ICU beds are near capacity. You, your family and others that have it are indeed fortunate to not have it worse.

On another note, I had a long conversation with a friend of mine and we have a mutual friend that owns a research lab and is studying the virus. Per our mutual friend, he said there were several strains that came in to the U.S. The one that came in to California was from Wuhan and symptoms were less serious than the one that came into New York primarily from Italy - this stain apparently was much more deadly, hence the differences in the severity of the outbreak in NY, NJ and CT. Not sure if this is accurate or not, but thought it interesting.

I hope you, your family and friends get over this with no further complications and would be interested to hear how long it takes you to recover fully.

thanks for the words Bay..appreciate it... I agree with different version part.. I really believe whats in south now in NOT the NY version or its way way weaker.... that I agree with.. and yes of course your right it effects people different based on ages and health...

I would only add about the Houston comment... their ICU is 97% as reported... now this is a fact.... also a fact that 365 days ago the rate was right at 93%... and that currently in Houston of the 97% only 12% is covid... so it is no way true at all that Houston hospitals are full with covid.. Thats media spin...

[Shiver Metimbers]

Clearly, we are at a Crossroads.

No, not with respect to any kind of Surge and hospitalizations or deaths.
The so-called epicenter in Texas, AKA Houston, is nowhere near to capacity and never has been.
https://www.chron.com/houston/article/TM...366132.php

The Drumbeat to Fear proceedes apace. Don't Get Fooled Again.

Anytime the death numbers continue to decline, we all switch to the case numbers with the implication that new cases equal new deaths!

Hooray for the Deep State and the drum beat to fear!

They even have a theme song, oh yes when it's time for more fear, call on Fauci! He's not a whore...

[Bayview777]

thanks for the words Bay..appreciate it... I agree with different version part.. I really believe whats in south now in NOT the NY version or its way way weaker.... that I agree with.. and yes of course your right it effects people different based on ages and health...

I would only add about the Houston comment... their ICU is 97% as reported... now this is a fact.... also a fact that 365 days ago the rate was right at 93%... and that currently in Houston of the 97% only 12% is covid... so it is no way true at all that Houston hospitals are full with covid.. Thats media spin...

Per Shivers article, normal now and sounds like they are ahead of the curve to treat people. Also, the data is showing that most of the cases are younger people, and medical professionals are leaso that should translate into a declining cases vs. deaths. - all good. But hospitalizations and deaths also lag new cases, so time will tell what actually happens. I am hoping for the best so we can get this country fully open. To me, maybe it is too simple follow the guidelines of wearing a mask, social distance and wash your hands. More vulnerable people need to take lots of caution and stay out of public as much as possible until there is a vaccine. I personally follow these and I don't have any fear of catching it. Again, I would love to hear an update from you in the future on how quickly you manage to get over it as a former runner, I know how important that daily running fix can be,so wish you the best in your recovery.

[greenthumb]

Anytime the death numbers continue to decline, we all switch to the case numbers with the implication that new cases equal new deaths!

Hooray for the Deep State and the drum beat to fear!

They even have a theme song, oh yes when it's time for more fear, call on Fauci! He's not a whore...

Good to hear from you sir. Hope you are well.

[Springer1952]

Even though covid19 is mutating into a less deadly strain so it does not kill host to help it spread, all the articles, interviews written about people who have had covid19 "EVERYONE" says that it is very bad to get. This virus affects the whole body and its organs. Doctors think that many peoples functions after they recuperate will not be 100% as before patient got covid19.

Do not be fooled by those who downplay the effects of this virus. The effects on the whole body can be major effects even if you are not hospitalized.

IMHO this is an engineered virus which escaped from a lab in China.

It is better to be safe than sorry here.

[greenthumb]

Herd Immunity For COVID-19 May Be Closer Than It Seems, New Model Shows
By Eric A. Blair
Published June 30, 2020 at 2:56pm
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We might be closer to herd immunity on COVID-19 than we think, a new model has found.

In herd immunity, enough people become infected with (and cured from) a virus, building antibodies that mean, at least for a while, they cannot catch the virus again. When enough people are included in that herd, the virus has few places to go and often dies off, or at least is greatly reduced.

Now, a new study from Nottingham and Stockholm Universities suggests that such immunity might be closer than many in the mainstream media say.

“According to their new mathematical model, far less people need to be infected with COVID-19 in order to reach herd immunity levels,” StudyFinds.com reported.

“That model, which was specially designed just for this study, categorizes people into different groups based on age and social activity levels. Once those factors are incorporated into herd immunity projections, the percentage of a population that would have to become immune drops from 60% to 43%,” they said.

“By taking this new mathematical approach to estimating the level for herd immunity to be achieved we found it could potentially be reduced to 43% and that this reduction is mainly due to activity level rather than age structure,” professor Frank Bell in a press release. “The more socially active individuals are then the more likely they are to get infected than less socially active ones, and they are also more likely to infect people if they become infected. Consequently, the herd immunity level is lower when immunity is caused by disease spreading than when immunity comes from vaccination.

“Our findings have potential consequences for the current COVID-19 pandemic and the release of lockdown and suggests that individual variation (e.g. in activity level) is an important feature to include in models that guide policy,” professor Bell concludes.

But the study’s authors say that their “43% number should not be looked at as an exact value, or even the best possible estimate.”

Even if that number is correct, there still might be a ways to go.

“Generally, 60% has been proclaimed as the herd immunity level needed among populations to stop COVID-19. That percentage was agreed upon because it is the usually accepted percentage of a population that must be vaccinated against an infectious disease to stop an outbreak from occurring,” StudyFunds wrote. “So, that 60% figure is based on the assumption that every member of a community is equally likely to be vaccinated and therefore immune. Of course, that’s clearly not what would happen regarding COVID-19 herd immunity, since there’s no vaccine. Instead, herd immunity for the virus would have to happen due to the virus spreading throughout a population.”

[greenthumb]

Contact Tracing is Already a Deceitful, Gestapo-Like Bureaucracy

DIARY / Daniel Bobinski // Posted at 1:49 am on July 1, 2020 by Daniel Bobinski

Based on what we’ve observed since the start of the Covid pandemic, it’s apparent the medical establishment wants Covid to look worse than it is. And now, with states enacting contact tracing programs, that practice is continuing.

Also, as we’ve observed, the medical community keeps moving the goalposts. As just one example, a May 18 video of the Collins County, TX Commissioners Court reveals that the definition of “new case” has changed. Whereas a “new case” used to be someone who was confirmed by test to have Covid, now a new case can be someone who was exposed to someone who was exposed to someone who had Covid, even if no symptoms are present.

This would explain why the number of new cases is increasing in America.

Creating a New Gestapo-Like Bureaucracy

Remember the events of September 11, 2001? Less than two months afterwards, with American patriotism in high gear, the PATRIOT Act was signed into law. Hardly any lawmaker read the bill, save for Ron Paul and a few others who truly cared about the Constitution. After all, the PATRIOT Act was about protecting Americans, by golly, just sign it!

Tragically, the PATRIOT Act created new bureaucracies that could write their own rules and conduct unreasonable searches and seizures without due process. Most have come to regret the PATRIOT Act. Americans can be seen holding their breath, hoping the gestapo-like agents of the TSA won’t decide to enforce some capricious rule and make you throw out that donut in your carry-on.

And now with America’s latest crisis, the Coronavirus Task Force painted worst-case scenarios and legacy (“mainstream”) media whipped the country into a frenzy of fear. Americans obediently shut down their businesses and shuttered themselves in their homes. “Two weeks to flatten the curve,” we were told. But two weeks became four, and then six, and then eight. In some states, restrictions remain in place to this day.

Accompanying the shutdown was Congressional activity that always seems to accompany a crisis, and the CARES Act flew through Congress with little, if any, debate. Again, most didn’t read the bill, and there wasn’t even a roll call vote.

But just as the PATRIOT Act brought the gestapo-like TSA, the CARES Act has given us gestapo-like contact tracing. Despite some people thinking it’s a good idea, I guarantee Americans will come to regret this, too. And they’ll regret it sooner than they might think.

What is contact tracing?

Procedures vary by state, but if you’ve been near someone for 15 minutes or more, and three days later that someone happens to test positive for Covid-19, you will be contacted by a contact tracer and asked to test for Covid. In some states, even if you’re asymptomatic, you’ll be asked to voluntarily self-quarantine for 14 days. And in some places it won’t be just you that gets quarantined, it will also be your spouse and kids.

And if you won’t quarantine voluntarily they can make it mandatory. States like Washington even have hundreds of National Guard members as part of the contract tracing teams. How long before someone in a military uniform with an assault weapon is at your door telling you to stay in your home because your brother-in-law’s sister’s cousin tested positive for Covid, and your kid was at her kid’s birthday party over the weekend?

I’ve written columns explaining this in greater detail, and even made a video explaining the contact tracing process. As a result, I’ve received multiple stories from readers. Here’s a contact tracing story from Idaho:

My brother was recently contacted by a ‘tracer’ because his girlfriend’s brother-in-law, who had NO symptoms, went to a testing site and apparently tested positive.

They traced everyone he was near which included my brother. My brother then got a phone call telling him he was exposed, and they also told him that they now have to document him as having Covid (though he has no symptoms) because he hasn’t been tested. They apparently did this to around 20 associated friends.

So, because one guy [without symptoms] was curious and tested positive, 21 new cases were added to the numbers. Now imagine that extrapolated across the country. People need to wake up and realize they’re being played hardcore big-time right now! It’s absolutely insane!

Perhaps this explains why traditional media outlets are reporting a spike in new cases.

I’m also receiving stories about doctors pushing for people to get tested for Covid.

“I took my mother to the doctor this last week. She had no Covid symptoms AT ALL. The doctor told her she should still get tested. Are these doctors getting some kind of kickback, like when they vaccinate your kid?”

And this one:

Several weeks after our son, age 22, went camping, he started experiencing migraines, fatigue, rashes all over his body, joint aches, and a slight fever. Concerned he might have been bitten by a tick, he paid a visit to an urgent care clinic near his apartment. The clinic ignored his symptoms and sent him to a second clinic so he could get a Covid-19 test. That’s all. There was no other diagnosis.

Our son had to wait several days for the test results to come back. They came back negative, but by that time he was beginning to experience facial dropping along with joint aches and more rashes. All the symptoms of textbook Lyme disease.

He then made a trip to an emergency room where he had to DEMAND blood work and a Lyme test. Sure enough he came back positive for Lyme disease, and is now on antibiotics. He’s now feeling better and we are so glad he persisted. No matter where he went, the focus was only on Covid-19 testing!

What’s sad is these people don’t want their names affiliated with their stories, because they don’t want to lose their jobs for speaking out or have the government crack down on them. But facts are facts: Americans are being manipulated, and along the way, our rights and livelihoods are evaporating.

This doesn’t have to happen

Here’s something to remember. Rights are rarely taken away; usually we just give them up.

Maybe you’ve seen those videos of police demanding information from people, and people saying, “I am under no obligation to give you that information.” The cops press harder, insisting the person must give the information, but the person stands his ground.

Then, when a cop realizes his bullying won’t work, you can hear him tell another cop as they’re walking away, “The guy knows his rights.”

This same scenario is happening across America today. Contact tracing is being implemented in states without their state legislatures voting on it, and people are simply giving up their rights. The result is a gestapo-like bureaucracy of contact tracers, stripping Americans of their rights without due process, with many Americans just letting it happen.

Like I said, this doesn’t have to happen. Americans can demand that their state legislatures get involved, because our inalienable rights are truly on the line.

Thankfully, people like Senator Rand Paul are being bold and calling out Anthony Fauci and other fear mongerers. It’s long overdue.

The choice is up to us. Submit to more gestapo tactics, or stand up and say, “no.”

[greenthumb]

@AlexBerenson: Astonishing data from North Carolina. Antibody testing now finds ~17% of residents have #SARSCoV2 antibodies. (12-14% includes last week’s tests, but the curve has gone parabolic.) Next stop herd immunity. And if it holds up the IFR [Infection Fatality Rate] will be tiny. https://wakehealth.edu/Coronavirus/COVID...s-and-Data