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Politics and such
#1


With the upcoming election, politics will be more and more on people's minds. Here's a thread to air your grievances with our current lot of candidates and politicians. Feel free to open new threads here in the OT section if you feel you have a topic of interest!
[+] 2 users Like Pretzel Logic's post
#2

This Wikileaks thing no bueno for HRC. Pissing off some Bernie Sanders supporters (#DemExit #DNCLeaks)

This one almost blows my mind then I remember it is the Clintons
https://twitter.com/wikileaks/status/756573903993135104

Gee

[+] 2 users Like agzbt's post
#3

My suggestion to those who know progressives who can't contemplate voting R --- especially the dissatisfied Berners -- is to suggest persuasively that they cast protest votes for Jill Stein (Green Party nominee).

There are at least two really positive things that could come out of this election: the neocons take it on the chin, and we see a large anti establishment vote on the Democratic side. Either by Dems not turning out, or by voting for Stein. Trump is already delivering one wake up call, but he shouldn't be the only one. The Berners have more work to do.

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#4

(07-22-2016, 11:55 PM)pedro_deleon Wrote:  My suggestion to those who know progressives who can't contemplate voting R --- especially the dissatisfied Berners -- is to suggest persuasively that they cast protest votes for Jill Stein (Green Party nominee).

There are at least two really positive things that could come out of this election: the neocons take it on the chin, and we see a large anti establishment vote on the Democratic side. Either by Dems not turning out, or by voting for Stein. Trump is already delivering one wake up call, but he shouldn't be the only one. The Berners have more work to do.

Personally I think Stein (Green) and Johnson (Libertarian - my choice at the moment) end up pulling enough of the votes to push the decision to the congress - maybe that's the final drop of the markets in November when there is no outcome to the US election.

Probably end up somehow being bullish Cursing

And not to stir the pot too much... I tend to agree that several of Hillary's so called misdeeds have been blown out of proportion. In fact, the anti Hillary folk will find a conspiracy in what she eats for breakfast.

BUT, I do believe that she has done and gotten away with things that certainly would have landed you and I in jail. And she is also either the most forgetful old lady in politics next to Charlie Rangle, or a flat out liar. Pretty sure it's door number 2.

There was a post that stated that the poster believed that she couldn't have gotten away with all the stuff people claim that she's done because "no one's that smart".

I have one name in rebuttal to that - Meyer Lansky. Here's a guy who everyone and their brother knew was dirty, and yet he never got more than a slap on the wrist for some minor stuff. Look him up... interesting history. And then put on your tinfoil hat and look at the Arkansas connection with the mob if you really want to get conspiratorial Big huh? But that was some time ago. No one acts like that anymore.... Scary

Imagine what you could get away with if you were at least as smart as he was and your husband was the former president.

I don't trust her. Although I have to admit, if the election does go to Congress, she's probably going to end up with the nod. Trump is too much of a loose cannon and one could go on for several more pages about his inability to be Prez.

Off the Soap box....

***********
The natural condition is one of insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster.
So what do we do ? Nothing. Strangely enough, it all turns out well. How?

I don't know. It's a mystery.
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#5

(07-23-2016, 01:54 AM)Dave Wrote:  Personally I think Stein (Green) and Johnson (Libertarian - my choice at the moment) end up pulling enough of the votes to push the decision to the congress -

That can only happen if (a) the race between Trump and HRC is close on an electoral college basis, and (b) either Stein or Johnson capture enough votes in particular states to win in at least one if not several of those states. Merely peeling off 5% of the vote at each end does nothing. State by state, its winner take all. I'd be amazed if either of them wind up over 10% in any state, and that won't get them any electoral votes. So it never gets to Congress.
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#6

(07-23-2016, 10:21 AM)pedro_deleon Wrote:  That can only happen if (a) the race between Trump and HRC is close on an electoral college basis, and (b) either Stein or Johnson capture enough votes in particular states to win in at least one if not several of those states. Merely peeling off 5% of the vote at each end does nothing. State by state, its winner take all. I'd be amazed if either of them wind up over 10% in any state, and that won't get them any electoral votes. So it never gets to Congress.

I agree that it's a long shot at this point, but Johnson is polling at about 13% nationally. If he can get to 15% and it's actually acknowledged by the PTB, he would have a place in the national debates this fall, making it more of a possibility. It has happened before, but a loooong time ago.

Not an easy task for sure, but hey... I still think the market is going down at some point... so color me crazy! Tongue


***********
The natural condition is one of insurmountable obstacles on the road to imminent disaster.
So what do we do ? Nothing. Strangely enough, it all turns out well. How?

I don't know. It's a mystery.
[+] 1 user Likes Dave's post
#7

A quote from the late, great John Kenneth Galbraith “Everything is connected to Economics….” Including politics of which war is simply an extension of and mostly worthless.
Election Day on Tuesday, the 8th of November, I'll be voting for Johnson after the 'Alien Apocalyptic Armageddon' beams out both main stream candidates (I could only wish). Enjoy Jon Stewart if you haven't seen it yet. Smile_1

https://youtu.be/mNiqpBNE9ik

The RNC is like Christmas in July.........Steve Colbert

https://youtu.be/ahChgL85VF8

Nothing matters until it matters, and when it does matter it's the only thing that matters, which at that point it's probably too late! It can only be attributable to human error.
-HAL 9000
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#8

Here's an article from Berkeleyside about the unnecessary antifa activity at an otherwise peaceful protest day (I was there at the Rally Against Hate). It will probably get talked up on conservative news. Here's a statement from where events occurred. http://www.berkeleyside.com/2017/08/27/o...-berkeley/

The team is fantastic, one of the best in the business. They work hard, play hard and are some of the funniest human beings you will ever meet in your life. Honestly you have to be a little bit crazy to do what we do.
-Bond Girl
#9

Today the OIG report was released related to FISA court abuse regarding certain individuals related to the Trump campaign. You can find the full report (Click Here)

Still way to early to determine the ultimate implications of this report. If there is ultimately criminal activity it will surface in grand jury indictments if they ever materialize. Here's a very brief summary of what I've discovered at this point.

Summary findings

Opening of the Investigation - "we found that Crossfire Hurricane was opened for an authorized investigative purpose & with sufficient factual predication" (p 410), "the exercise of discretion in opening the investigation was in compliance with Department and FBI policies, and we did not find documentary or testimonial evidence that political basis or improper motivation influenced the decision" (p 410) This is the headline that you will find on most of the news media. It's important to remember these comments are only relating to the initial opening of the investigation and don't speak to the actual FISA applications or renewals. This is really one of the only positive things I can find in the report so far.

Summary Regarding FISA - "However, as we describe in this report, our review identified significant concerns with how certain aspects of the investigation were conducted and supervised, particularly the FBI's failure to adhere to its own standards of accuracy and completeness when filing applications for Foreign Intelligence surveillance Act (FISA) authority to surveil Carter Page, a U.S. person who was connected to the Donald J. Trump for President Campaign. We also identified what we believe is an absence of sufficient policies to ensure appropriate Department oversight of significant investigative decisions that could affect constitutionally protected activity." (p 410) "Nevertheless, we found that members of the Crossfire Hurricane team failed to meet the basic obligation to ensure that the Carter Page FISA applications were "scrupulously accurate." We identified significant inaccuracies and omissions in each of the four applications-7 in the first FISA application and a total of 17 by the final renewal application. For example, the Crossfire Hurricane team obtained information from Steele's Primary Sub-source in January 2017 that raised significant questions about the reliability of the Steele reporting that was used in the Carter Page FISA applications. But members of the Crossfire Hurricane team failed to share the information with the Department, and it was therefore omitted from the three renewal applications. All of the applications also omitted information the FBI had obtained from another U.S. government agency detailing its prior relationship with Page, including that Page had been approved as an operational contact for the other agency from 2008 to 2013, and that Page had provided information to the other agency concerning his prior contacts with certain Russian intelligence officers, one of which overlapped with facts asserted in the FISA application." (p 413) "As a result of the 17 significant inaccuracies and omissions we identified, relevant information was not shared with, and consequently not considered by, important Department decision makers and the court, and the FISA applications made it appear as though the evidence supporting probable cause was stronger than was actually the case. We also found basic, fundamental, and serious errors during the completion of the FBl's factual accuracy reviews, known as the Woods Procedures, which are designed to ensure that FISA applications contain a full and accurate presentation of the facts." (p 413) "We determined that the inaccuracies and omissions we identified in the applications resulted from case agents providing wrong or incomplete information to Department attorneys and failing to identify important issues for discussion. Moreover, we concluded that case agents and SSAs did not give appropriate attention to facts that cut against probable cause, and that as the investigation progressed and more information tended to undermine or weaken the assertions in the FISA applications, the agents and SSAs did not reassess the information supporting probable cause. Further, the agents and SSAs did not follow, or even appear to know, certain basic requirements in the Woods Procedures. Although we did not find documentary or testimonial evidence of intentional misconduct on the part of the case agents who assisted NSD's Office of Intelligence (01) in preparing the applications, or the agents and supervisors who performed the Woods Procedures, we also did not receive satisfactory explanations for the errors or missing information. We found that the offered explanations for these serious errors did not excuse them, or the repeated failures to ensure the accuracy of information presented to the FISC." (p413-414)

"We are deeply concerned that so many basic and fundamental errors were made by three separate, hand-picked investigative teams; on one of the most sensitive FBI investigations; after the matter had been briefed to the highest levels within the FBI; even though the information sought through use of FISA authority related so closely to an ongoing presidential campaign; and even though those involved with the investigation knew that their actions were likely to be subjected to close scrutiny. We believe this circumstance reflects a failure not just by those who prepared the FISA applications, but also by the managers and supervisors in the Crossfire Hurricane chain of command, including FBI senior officials who were briefed as the investigation progressed. We do not expect managers and supervisors to know every fact about an investigation, or senior leaders to know all the details of cases about which they are briefed." (p 414)

"In the preparation of the FISA applications to surveil Carter Page, the Crossfire Hurricane team failed to comply with FBI policies, and in so doing fell short of what is rightfully expected from a premier law enforcement agency entrusted with such an intrusive surveillance tool. In light of the significant concerns identified with the Carter Page FISA applications and the other issues described in this report, the OIG today initiated an audit that will further examine the FBI's compliance with the Woods Procedures in FISA applications that target U.S. persons in both counterintelligence and counterterrorism investigations. We also make the following recommendations to assist the Department and the FBI in avoiding similar failures in future investigations." (p414).

Else where in the report they indicate the audit above is going to review 15 years of FISA applications. THIS IS A VERY BIG DEAL.

Just reading the entire section of conclusion I don't see how anyone can view this report as positive commentary on the FBI or the agents involeved in this investigation. With out knowing any additional information, given this was an investigation related to people involved in a US presidential campaign, at best I would consider this "gross negligence" if not criminal.


Carter Page Exculpatory Evidence

A little of background here... I believe Page was identified as "Male Informant 1" in a major round up of a spy ring that resulted in a number of Russians getting sent back to Russia. I don't have a link at my finger tips but I assume this is the reference to "other US government agency". Additionaly, if you study Page's background he was a Naval academy grad and has connections to the intelligence community (I think NATO but not sure).

"none of the three renewal applications described Page's prior historical contacts and relationship with the other U.S. government agency, even after the FBI received additional information from the other agency in June 2017. In April and May 2017, following news reports that the FBI had obtained a FISA targeting Carter Page, Page gave interviews to news outlets denying that he had collected intelligence for the Russian government and asserting instead that he had previously shared information that he had learned with the U.S. intelligence community. In mid-June 2017, in response to concerns expressed by members of the Crossfire Hurricane team, the 0GC Attorney contacted the other U.S. government agency by email to seek clarification about Page's past status with that agency. The other U.S. government agency responded by email to the FBI 0GC attorney by directing the attorney to memoranda previously sent to the FBI by the other U .5. government agency that informed the FBI that Page did previously have a relationship with that other agency and that the last contact occurred in July 2011. The email also stated, using the other agency's terminology, that Page had a relationship with that other agency. However, when asked about Page's prior status with that other agency by a Crossfire Hurricane supervisor, SSA 2, who was going to be the affiant on the final FISA renewal application, the OGC Attorney told SSA 2 that Page had never had a relationship with the other U.S. government agency. In addition, the OGC Attorney altered the email that the other U.S. government agency had sent to the OGC Attorney so that the email stated that Page had not been a source for the other agency; the OGC Attorney then forwarded the altered email to SSA 2, who told us he relied on the email. Shortly thereafter, SSA 2 served as the affiant on the final renewal application, which was again sflent on Page's prior relationship with the other U.S. government agency." (p 159-160)

Somebody's going to jail. See the red underlined text above.

Still way to early to tell where this is going but based on the following two quotes I posted on the daily thread (reposted below), I think this is headed in a very ominous direction. Based on Barr and Durham's press releases today. They are straight up telling you that this is just the tip of the ice berg. They could both be stooges or pushing the Hillary/Obama bad propaganda for Trump but I'm struggling to see that at the moment.



Bill Barr's statement:

“Nothing is more important than the credibility and integrity of the FBI and the Department of Justice. That is why we must hold our investigators and prosecutors to the highest ethical and professional standards. The Inspector General’s investigation has provided critical transparency and accountability, and his work is a credit to the Department of Justice. I would like to thank the Inspector General and his team.

The Inspector General’s report now makes clear that the FBI launched an intrusive investigation of a U.S. presidential campaign on the thinnest of suspicions that, in my view, were insufficient to justify the steps taken. It is also clear that, from its inception, the evidence produced by the investigation was consistently exculpatory. Nevertheless, the investigation and surveillance was pushed forward for the duration of the campaign and deep into President Trump’s administration. In the rush to obtain and maintain FISA surveillance of Trump campaign associates, FBI officials misled the FISA court, omitted critical exculpatory facts from their filings, and suppressed or ignored information negating the reliability of their principal source. The Inspector General found the explanations given for these actions unsatisfactory. While most of the misconduct identified by the Inspector General was committed in 2016 and 2017 by a small group of now-former FBI officials, the malfeasance and misfeasance detailed in the Inspector General’s report reflects a clear abuse of the FISA process.

FISA is an essential tool for the protection of the safety of the American people. The Department of Justice and the FBI are committed to taking whatever steps are necessary to rectify the abuses that occurred and to ensure the integrity of the FISA process going forward.

No one is more dismayed about the handling of these FISA applications than Director Wray. I have full confidence in Director Wray and his team at the FBI, as well as the thousands of dedicated line agents who work tirelessly to protect our country. I thank the Director for the comprehensive set of proposed reforms he is announcing today, and I look forward to working with him to implement these and any other appropriate measures.

With respect to DOJ personnel discussed in the report, the Department will follow all appropriate processes and procedures, including as to any potential disciplinary action.”



John Durham's statement:

“I have the utmost respect for the mission of the Office of Inspector General and the comprehensive work that went into the report prepared by Mr. Horowitz and his staff. However, our investigation is not limited to developing information from within component parts of the Justice Department. Our investigation has included developing information from other persons and entities, both in the U.S. and outside of the U.S. Based on the evidence collected to date, and while our investigation is ongoing, last month we advised the Inspector General that we do not agree with some of the report’s conclusions as to predication and how the FBI case was opened.”

#10

Here’s an important data point and possibly a tell of where this is going. On page 186-187 we learn that in Jan 2017 the FBI interview Chris Steele’s “primary source” for the Steele Dossier and this source stated that “he/she had not seen Steele’s reports until they became public that month and he/she made statements that indicated that Steele misstated or exaggerated the sources statements in multiple sections of his report”

The FBI knew that Steele was a bad witness in January of 2017. Not only did they not disclose this to the FISA court, they also opened a special counsel investigation into the Trump campaign. The goal of the special counsel investigation was to pin obstruction of justice on Trump. Remember that this report does not address all the additional activities of the FBI around this matter, only the opening of the investigation and the FISA court submissions. If this was the case and Durham can prove it, this is effectively trying to overthrow a duly elected president. Just my speculation.
[+] 1 user Likes Will's post
#11

(12-10-2019, 10:32 AM)Will Wrote:  Here’s an important data point and possibly a tell of where this is going. On page 186-187 we learn that in Jan 2017 the FBI interview Chris Steele’s “primary source” for the Steele Dossier and this source stated that “he/she had not seen Steele’s reports until they became public that month and he/she made statements that indicated that Steele misstated or exaggerated the sources statements in multiple sections of his report”

The FBI knew that Steele was a bad witness in January of 2017. Not only did they not disclose this to the FISA court, they also opened a special counsel investigation into the Trump campaign. The goal of the special counsel investigation was to pin obstruction of justice on Trump. Remember that this report does not address all the additional activities of the FBI around this matter, only the opening of the investigation and the FISA court submissions. If this was the case and Durham can prove it, this is effectively trying to overthrow a duly elected president. Just my speculation.

I'm glad you posted about all this, and I'm keeping track of it... well, the lack of track of it. The level of corruption already known in the public sphere is astounding, was already astounding back in 2018 and even 2017, and yet... nothing, zip zero nada.

Barr has intimated that prosecutable crimes were committed, and in many cases the already-public evidence is so overwhelming that one wonders why (cough, NOT) nothing, not even Senatorial hearings, has ever happened. Giuliani came back from fact-finding in Ukraine with more intimations of high-level corruption etc., and... nothing.

A number of Senators, ex-Senators, other high muckity-mucks and their assorted hangers-on are implicated and in some cases rather blatantly indictable. I am sad but unsurprised that nothing has or likely ever will come of it all, except maybe a couple slaps on low-level wrists.

Springer1952 posted on the US Politics thread, putting it here because it is very on-point.

(02-11-2020, 04:25 AM)Springer1952 Wrote:  An excellent article summarizing the Obama/Clinton/NSC/CIA/FBI/DOJ coup attempt against Trump.

https://amgreatness.com/2020/02/09/the-o...e-scandal/

Hanson is a good writer, and agree 100% on your assessment of that piece as an excellent summary.

Thing is... nothing has come of it, any more than anything came from the OIG report. No indictments much less trials of the many bad actors, the Mueller Witch Hunt and Impeachement Kangaroo Kourt defended / abetted / advanced by even Republicans and so-called conservatives...

I weep for this country.

#12

(02-12-2020, 07:22 PM)Shiver Metimbers Wrote:  I'm glad you posted about all this, and I'm keeping track of it... well, the lack of track of it...

A number of Senators, ex-Senators, other high muckity-mucks and their assorted hangers-on are implicated and in some cases rather blatantly indictable. I am sad but unsurprised that nothing has or likely ever will come of it all, except maybe a couple slaps on low-level wrists.
...
Thing is... nothing has come of it, any more than anything came from the OIG report. No indictments much less trials of the many bad actors, the Mueller Witch Hunt and Impeachement Kangaroo Kourt defended / abetted / advanced by even Republicans and so-called conservatives...

I weep for this country.

Case in point: Flynn is STILL being railroaded, even with Barr as AG

'Nevermind All That FBI Misconduct': Mueller Attack-Dog Asks Court To Ignore Flynn Bid To Toss Case
#13

(02-13-2020, 12:48 AM)Shiver Metimbers Wrote:  Case in point: Flynn is STILL being railroaded, even with Barr as AG

'Nevermind All That FBI Misconduct': Mueller Attack-Dog Asks Court To Ignore Flynn Bid To Toss Case

And here we are, two and a half months later and counting, and the DOJ declined to prosecute Comey. Or McCabe. Both of whom were deeply involved in the travesty outlined in the article hereby cited.

OH yeah, not even Strozk has been indicted, much less prosecuted. All these folks and more have been known to the DOJ for years, and the malfeasance they perpetrated likewise known to the upper echelons of the FBI and the Department of Justice.

FOR YEARS.

Your Guide To The Obama Administration’s Hit On Michael Flynn
#14

I’m going to post a few things related to inconsistencies, concerns or other issues related to the 2020 election. I’d be curious to hear information others have found and general thoughts.

A couple of things 1st. 1) Election integrity is extremely important in a free democratic society. 2) Similar to the first point but slightly different, there is an additional level of importance and that is the prevailing views of the citizens in this free society regarding election integrity. The threshold is not that a majority believe there is election integrity but it is a threshold much lower than a simple majority that loose confidence in our system. If a more than a small group doubts the integrity of free elections it can cast enough doubt to compromise the public precipitation of the whole system. 3) If any level of real election fraud occurs it should be investigated and prosecuted. I’m not implying that any accusation no matter how credible must be investigated. 4) Just because your candidate lost does not mean every accusation of fraud must be endlessly investigated and just because your candidate won, maybe even by a large margin, it does not mean that we should discount or ignore real election fraud because it’s impact in the outcome was not material. The integrity of the system and citizens faith in the system is almost as important as the election fraud impact on the outcome. 5) The heighten level of polarization in society today makes the impact of even small amounts election fraud on the citizens trust in the system more meaningful than during times of less pronounced polarization. 6) With the heightened polarization also comes a heightened level of collective cognitive biases which will make it difficult for each side to compromise and do the right thing for the integrity of the system.

Okay here’s some of the areas I’ve found interesting:

1) Abuse of the mail-in-ballot process - Dead voters on the voter roles voting via mail-in-ballot (Michigan was easy to check but website recently crashed, I saw a list of close to 1,200 ballots that showed voters over 100 years old). People voting that had recently moved/relocated out of state. Abuse of voter roles that had no purged the madden names of newly married females. I’ve seen the most evidence of the dead vote.

One of the lists of dead Michigan Voters
https://twitter.com/DetmerMike/status/13...13666?s=20 (there are multiple lists, I've seen some with 1200 names included)

Here's the website where you can test their voting status in 2020
https://mvic.sos.state.mi.us/Voter/Index

Unless there is another explanation like bad birthday information, this should be concerning to anyone. If this was legitimate fraud, could it be the tip of the proverbial ice berg? Even if this is not fraud it should be cleaned up at a minimum.

2) Abuse of federal election laws - Pennsylvania is probably the best example of this. The courts made a unilateral decision to extend the date absentee ballots would be accepted. There’s fairly good federal trial law established that seems to imply that this violates federal election law. Additionally, I’ve seen a lot of compelling arguments that the equal protection clause was violated in PA.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/12/pen...ks.twitter

3) Local election worker fraud or negligence - I've seen a number of claims regarding local election works doing things like running stacks of ballots through voting machines multiple times, workers discarding ballots for a particular candidate and other similar illegal activity. I doubt this was widespread enough or organized on a broader level than a couple of dispersed bad actors. However, if people break the law we should still investigate and prosecute. See the attached interview for a reasonable example of this type of activity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oF12gZ_m...L&index=51


4) Electronic voting machines -

University Professor talking about hacking and vulnerabilities of voting machings
https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/10...sians.html

This twitter thread by Gummibear737 summarizes some very interesting findings from another twitter user, CodeMonkeyZ. CodeMonkeyZ found the user manual for Dominion voting machines. Some very interesting reading. Regardless of the ultimate verdict on 2020 voting fraud, everyone should read this thread.

https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/...62125?s=20

Statement from Dominion Voting about the recent accusations
https://www.dominionvoting.com/
Notice the wording discussing the relations ship with Smartmatic, a questionable voting technology company with ties to Venezuela. They use the following "Dominion has no company ownership relationships with..." Just because they don't have an "ownership relationship" does seem to leave the door open to a contractual relationship.

See this interview of the Dominion CEO and his comments a in 2015 about a relationship with Smartmatic.
https://twitter.com/Andy5x5/status/13281...55936?s=20


5) Nefarious foreign actor attempting to influence electronic voting - I have not seen any evidence of this at this point. However, when discussing this with various people I'm surprised how many people completely discount this as a possibility. I remind them that we spent almost 3 years investigating Russia's involvement in the 2016 election. In 2016, Russia managed to use Facebook to post information that supposedly could have impacted voters. I imagine any foreign government would love to hack voting technology if they could. Also remember that we organize our voting systems on a state level and the approach and level of sophistication at the state level is probably not as rigorous to defend against a sophisticated nation state attack on their voting systems. Additionally, consider the volunteers, seasonal election works and other vulnerabilities with the variety of people that work at the state level during federal elections. When you consider these factors in conjunction with the vulnerabilities of the Dominion voting system.

6) Statistic analyses - I've seen a number of interesting statistical analyses regarding the vote by county across the country. Some of this analysis was reasonably good and some not so good. You can find a bunch of this posted on twitter if you search. Remember correlation does not always mean causation.

http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2020/11...c.html?m=1

Finally, here's an article that I came across in my investigation from the BBC from 2016. Signs of election fraud.... Some similarities?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-37243190

If you can change your mind, who is the“you” that changes the mind? If “you” are not your mind then what are you? Are you something more than you think you are?

Benevolent dictator political thread
https://www.deepwaveanalytics.com/forum/...p?tid=3656

#15

Wayne County Michigan fails to certify election results. This now goes to the state canvassing board.

https://www.khou.com/article/news/nation...195e0f6a28

Still a low probability but my thesis posted in the main forum last week is beginning to take shape. See point #4 below.



(11-13-2020, 01:29 PM)Will Wrote:  Don't want to get into a long discussion but I think this could impact the markets in the next week or two. I think the probability is increasing that we have an unusual and unanticipated path to the presidential inauguration next year. I've been studying everything related to the election in the last week and I think there are a number of factors the markets are underestimating or assuming that the course forward will be the same as most other elections between now an inauguration day. This is not a prediction just an observation of several forces at work.

1) Unprecedented level of mail-in ballots in a system that was not designed to accommodated this. I've seen data in some states that indicate less than 0.1% of mail-in ballots were rejected in 2020 when typically numbers of rejected mail-in ballots hover around ~3%.
2) I've seen some compelling evidence that states, Pennsylvania in particular, may have violated election laws and constitutional requirements.
- Look at actions of PA supreme court regarding state law regarding acceptance date of mail-in ballots
- Some compelling evidence that some counties in PA have violated the equal protection clause when it comes to curing ballots
3) Dominion voting machine - I'm not convinced that there is wide spread fraud regarding these machines at this point. However, they are getting a lot of attention and at times being used to justify a full audit, re-canvasing and recount. This could have an impact on the status/rejection of some mail-in ballots. If real fraud is discovered here we will be in a complete election melt down. I don't see widespread fraud as highly likely at this point but in 2020 and anything is possible. Particularly when almost half the country believes that Trump is Hitler and cheating would be justified to save the republic from Hitler.
4) State legislators are starting to get involved in some of these states. I'm still trying to absorb the possible constitutional implications of this but the state legislators are mostly republican. The constitution puts the responsibility of setting state election laws in the hands of state legislators and the constitution puts more power in the hands these legislators than most people realize when it comes to federal elections in particular the presidency.
5) Probability higher than usual that changes are made to the pool of presidential electors before electoral college meets in early December. I actually think the higher probability is that some number of electors don't get certified in time may be a higher probability. This could be a result of courts ruling that election laws were violated in PA for example.
6) Trump is a fighter and for better or worse he is more likely to push some of these issues more than you would typically expect.
7) The race is so tight in a handful of states that it does not take much to move the needle.

To be clear I'm not implying the above is highly probable at this stage of impacting the outcome of the election. In the majority of years the probability that even one elector defects is close to zero and that is the most irregularity you may expect between the election and the inauguration. I wold maybe put the odds of something above actually impacting the outcome of the election at 2-7% at this point. However, I would place the odds of these events become a focus of markets and media at something much higher than that in the next month. Maybe 20-35%. All I'm saying is that some of the data I've digested implies some of the above will get traction in the courts or in the state legislators. When people start to realize there is a high possibility of a very unusual path to inauguration day market volatility may pick up.

Just my two cents... Here's one interesting article regarding PA.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/12/pen...intervene/

In a final note, I don't recommend trading the news. I'm just making the case that these are still not normal times and the market is expecting some return to normalcy.

If you can change your mind, who is the“you” that changes the mind? If “you” are not your mind then what are you? Are you something more than you think you are?

Benevolent dictator political thread
https://www.deepwaveanalytics.com/forum/...p?tid=3656

#16

(11-17-2020, 11:54 AM)Will Wrote:  I’m going to post a few

This is a good list by a reporter about all the accusations of election fraud.

Also posted in US Politics thread

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16770...n-election



[+] 1 user Likes Springer1952's post
#17

Trump fires Homeland Security cyber chief Chris Krebs who called election secure.

ANY GOVERNMENT OFICIAL SAYING ELECTION SECURE IS PART OF THE DEEP STATE AND MUST BE SMOKING TO MUCH DOPE.

Three democratic senators wrote a long many page letter in 2018 highlighting many examples of election fraud some against electronic voting machines. THE GOVERNMENT DID NOTHING, NO INVESTIGATION.

How can anyone say election is secure with Will and my post listing many examples of at least irregularities and most likely fraud. SAYING ELECTION IS SECURE MEANS GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SECURE ELECTIONS DOES NOT CARE.

This stinks so bad I have to move to Canada to get away from stink.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-ousts-h...35199.html

------------------------------------------
HOMELAND SECURITY CYBER SECURITY CHIEF CHRIS KREBS CALLS 2020 ELECTION "MOST SECURE IN HISTORY".

An example of the deep state going cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs.

Here is the article with his statement. Just think your taxpayer dollars pay these people's salary and then when they get thrown out it pays for their retirement.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/...ris-krebs/

My opinion is that President Trump after he concedes will continue to strongly speak out about Biden policies preparing to run for president in 2024 which he will most certainly win. But he will have to be able to stop election fraud and the deep state. May not be easy.

If the Dems go wild and crazy americans will give control of House and Senate to republicans in 2022 waiting for Trumps 2024 election.

My 0.02
[+] 1 user Likes Springer1952's post
#18

Excellent article on Obamas presidency. Did not know he had an "operation choke point" which used the banking system to snuff out businesses that did not agree with him. Pretty skummy thing to do and the press gave him cover for 8 years. Reason Trump was elected but the deep state finally got Trump in election.

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/17/oba...-is-racist

#19

"While the Republican Party of George Bush was in power, this deep state had used its control of computerized vote counting to rig elections in 2000 and 2004 in its favor as showcased brilliantly in the 2006 documentary Hacking Democracy. Later, when it was time for a controlled opposition to take power in 2008, it did the same thing under a different cast of characters."

"Dominion Voting System is a Canadian company"

"For those still out of the loop, Smartmatic furnishes voting machines and its software (back door codes and all) to governments all around the world and is highly enmeshed with the Clinton Foundation, Soros Open Society and Nancy Pelosi's own Chief of Staff."

"Not only that, but the key figure controlling Smartmatic is none other than Lord Mark Mallorca Brown, a former vice chairman of George Soros Investment Funds"

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/m...oust-trump
-----------------
Understanding The Tri-fold Nature of the Deep State

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/u...deep-state

Interesting articles.
#20

"And they describe multiple incidents where the number of votes cast far exceeded the population of the public in that county, including children"

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watc...s-briefing

The non certification of Michigan Wayne County votes was due to the same thing happening in a significant number of precincts.

This is easy to audit and at least get an idea of amount of fraud.

Just compare number of registered voters to total votes in each precinct. When number of votes is greater you know those are the precincts where a full audit is required.

A full audit is:
- verification of signature
- verification of registration
- verification of double votes
- verification of mail in and received dates
- forensic analysis of electronic machines used
- in electronic machine forensic analysis each entry in software code should be tracked

There should be an immediate start of a non partisan investigation of what happened in the 2020 election and a thorough examination of all software in all electronic machines.

The Feds should also pass a set of criteria in how to manufacture, program and use electronic machines to minimize any manipulation. THE SOFTWARE SHOULD NEVER ALLOW ANY CHANGES TO RAW INPUT VOTE DATA PERIOD.


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